Toyota orders: another small negative month in Japan

October 24, 2012

Aqua catches up An article in the Chubu Keizai business daily reported that Toyota‘s orders in September 2012 came to 112,000 units, falling 2% compared to September 2011, a slowdown being attributed to the cessation of the eco-car subsidies that had been running in Japan. This was, as can be seen from the chart at […]

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Japan forklift sales: September sales bad, KION IPO a potential positive

October 24, 2012

No change in trend Conclusion: no change in the trend of weak exports and weakening domestic demand. You should continue to avoid stocks like Toyota Industries that are a mixture of auto parts and forklift exposure. I would prefer auto parts stocks, like Denso or perhaps an auto OEM like Toyota. The Japan Industrial Vehicles […]

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Japan bearing orders: bumping along the bottom in August 2012

October 17, 2012

Move along, nothing to see here There was some interest in the bearing order figures that are released as an adjunct to the Japan machinery orders on which I commented recently. Like the main machinery orders, there has been “no respite”. Orders in August 2012 bearing orders were very poor, falling 20% year-on-year and 15% […]

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Brazil auto sales: Things fall apart

October 12, 2012

You can’t hold the market up indefinitely Conclusion: a very poor month for Brazil autos but, as we have noted before, Brazil is a minor market for the Japanese auto OEMs. The main takeaway is that you should think carefully about your exposure to the “three kings” of the Brazilian auto market, namely Fiat, Volkswagen […]

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Japan machinery orders: No respite in August

October 12, 2012

Not terrible but not getting any better I’m going to be brief here because this is a subject that gets commented to death. The headline figure for Japan machinery orders (released 2012-10-11 by the ESRI of the Japan Cabinet Office) showed that private orders excluding large and volatile orders for ships and power generation equipment […]

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Japan tyres: September auto exports likely slumped

October 11, 2012

Export crash? Conclusion: Auto production figures for Japan in September 2012 will not be released until the end of October but just-released OEM tyre sales figures from JATMA suggest that auto production in September was quite abnormally weak. If this was indeed the case, then the only sensible explanation I can think of is that […]

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Japan machine tools: tone of overseas orders improves

October 10, 2012

Not getting any worse Orders for machine tools in September 2012 fell by 3% year-on-year and rose 11.4% month-on-month to 107.2 billion yen, according to the Japan Machine Tool Builders Association, which released data after 3pm on 10 October. I took a quick look and didn’t see anything obviously frightening but nothing too heartening, other […]

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Natural rubber: how can higher prices be sustained absent higher demand?

October 5, 2012

Go on, convince me the increase in the rubber price is sustainable Conclusion: I would not lose sleep over the Japan tyre makers (e.g. Bridgestone, Sumitomo Rubber) because of higher natural rubber prices. The current rally in the commodity will likely be shortlived unless the China auto market turns around. However, if there are moves […]

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Toyota market share back to No.2 in US

October 3, 2012

Toyota getting its mojo back Despite Ford’s much-touted new products (Fusion, Focus etc) Toyota managed to nudge past Ford again for the second time in 2012, after just beating them in April 2012. Before that, you have to go back to July 2010 for a month when Toyota outsold Ford. Slowly but surely Toyota is […]

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US tires: tariff expirations will not hurt Bridgestone

October 2, 2012

Tariff expiration is a storm in a tea cup; ignore and move on Conclusion: the punitive tariffs levied since September 2009 by the US on tires imported from China have not materially benefited Bridgestone and other tier-1 brand suppliers and may have hurt them in some ways through restricting their own low-cost products. The expiration […]

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