Auto stocks performance: Fiat soars

by SR on May 28, 2012

Fiat goes on a tear

Global OEM share price performance year-to-date in 2012 (native currency base)

The usual auto stock performance figures have been updated for the 30 or so auto OEM stocks that I track. The charts show relative performance over the past year; since the Japanese market bottomed in November 2011 (still a bit Japan-centric); year-to-date since the beginning of calendar 2012; over the past three months; since the start of the current month.

To remind you, these charts exist to allow us a clearer view on global auto OEM and auto parts stocks might be heading, and it’s hard to do that without a view on where they’ve come from. Click on any chart for a larger, clearer image.

The stand-out was Fiat, which rose by 21.5% over the week, apparently propelled by positive updates from analysts and by speculation that Fiat might tie up with Suzuki after the former dissolves its relationship with Tata Motors. I should point out that the stock was coming from a very low base of E3.35, but still it had got up to E4.07 by Friday, which is a substantial move. That brings the change in Fiat’s share price year-to-date to +16.6%. The stock is still behind Toyota (+19.5%) but ahead of Kia, Volkswagen and Hyundai. The stock of every viable company becomes attractive at some price and I can only assume that just over 3 Euros was that price for Fiat. Renault rose by 10.1% last week and the US triumvirate of Tesla, GM and Ford rose by 8.2%, 5.9% and 5.9% respectively. At the other end of the scale Yamaha dropped another 4.9%. That stock is now down 32.1% for the month.

Drawing back to look at performance year-to-date, the top three are unchanged but Tata (+51%) has slipped past Geely (+50.6%) to the No. 1 spot while Great Wall (+28.9%) remains in third. The biggest losers – and not in a good way – are still Peugeot (-32.1%), Yamaha (-25.1%) and Mazda (-25%).

Incidentally, looking at global market indices year-to-date (strictly speaking, measured from the last trading day of CY2011) gives us the chart below. Topix (highlighted), the Paris CAC40 and Bovespa are the disappointing ones there. Having flown as high as 20% earlier in the year, the Japan and Brazil indices are now in negative territory and although the CAC40’s performance was not as impressive, it too has slumped. The FTSE100 is now down from the start of the year, but its fall from grace has been less dramatic as it never got to more than 7% or so above its starting point. Given the concerns about Europe, it still surprises me that the Dax is leading the global market index pack so far in 2012. Shanghai is a little different, as it has been the underperformer of this group since the markets bottomed in November 2011.

Global market index price performance year-to-date in 2012 (native currency base)

The message: Toyota’s going to have a great year for sales and the auto parts suppliers (Denso, Aisin Seiki) will certainly benefit.

Previous post:

Next post: